The Changing Syria: Voices From the Ground

On November 11, 2024, the Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad arrived in Saudi Arabia for the Arab-Islamic summit in Riyadh. It was the culmination of Assad’s rehabilitation into the Arab political arena after being ousted for almost 13 years. Military analysts and heads of state alike were ready to declare him the victor of the Syrian Civil War, the worst humanitarian disaster since WWII, and one of the most gruesome armed conflicts of the new century. Less than a month later, Assad fled Syria and hid in Moscow leaving the country in the hands of radical Islamists who a few days earlier were able to conquer key cities such as Aleppo and Homs. The Syrian Arab Army collapsed and for the ruling dictator there was nothing else to do other than escape. Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) is now ruling the regime areas.

Despite the partial re-normalization of the Assad dynasty on international stage, domestically, his rule was hollowed out: more than a third of the country was de facto outside state control; including the Democratic Autonomous Administration of Northern and Eastern Syria (DAANES), as well as the radical Islamist strongholds in Idlib and Turkish-occupied territories in the north and west. Civilian resistance were years in the making in nominally regime-controlled areas in Homs, Daraa, and Suweida. Heavy sanctions and war had devastated the economy, leaving the Syrian pound in free fall and some 16.7 million Syrians dependent on humanitarian aid. The regime was increasingly kept afloat by drug trade, extortion, and other illicit sources of income.

For many Syrians and others who had participated in or intimately followed the struggle against Assad’s regime, it was a question of time: maybe of years, or maybe of months, but the Assads’ dynasty had no future. The HTS-led surprise attack on November 27 finally put the spotlight on the naked emperor and his demoralized conscription army crumbled without much of a fight.

As Turning Point celebrates its first anniversary, we will dedicate this month to a theme that brought our editorial board together years ago: Syrian civil war. On its first on-the-ground reporting mission, a Turning Point team recently spent a month in northern Syria to immerse in the historic, yet uncertain period in the Syrian peoples’ long fight for justice and freedom. In talks with city dwellers and villagers, freedom fighters and veterans, shop-owners and newly-displaced IDPs, former prisoners and families whose members are still missing, as well as with the organizers of various movements for women’s liberation, freedom, and cultural revolution, one message was repeated over and over again: the struggle is far from over, yet entering a new phase.

Tensions run high between the two leading anti-Assad factions: the various secular-democratic formations and the equally colourful array of radical Islamists that range from al-Qaeda and ISIS to various splinter groups, including the ruling HTS. The regime is now gone, and Syria is left without a recognizable centralized administration. While the HTS alliance took control of Damascus, DAANES and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the north represent by far the strongest unified administration and military force in the country, aiming to rally other Syrian components to a united democratic and secular front.

However, both the HTS and the SDF have appeared eager to put an end to the civil war and resolve their outstanding contradictions by political means. Since the fall of Assad, no major fighting has been reported between the Syrian factions, including in Aleppo, where Sheikh Maqsoud and Ashrafiye neighborhoods have preserved their democratic self-governance under SDF protection, and in Suweida, where numerous allied Druze militias demand rights for their community.

While the civil war in Syria has de facto halted, at least for the time being, the country remains vulnerable to foreign interventions. “Stop Turkey and you will stop the war immediately,” was a call that northern Syrian people from all different walks of life reiterated in numerous interviews. Taking advantage the chaotic situation, the neighboring Israel and Turkey have cynically expanded their occupation of Syrian borderlands: the former moving from the occupied Golan Heights deeper into the Quneitra governorate and destroying what remained of the Syrian Air Force and Navy across the country, and the latter expanding its zone of occupation to Tel Rifaat and Manbij with its Syrian proxies.

On our first article in February, we will report from north Syria where a war has ravaged unabated for nearly two months amid Turkey’s attempt to conquer one of Syria’s key hydroelectric plants on the Euphrates and besiege the renowned city of Kobane. While the SDF has hold the Turkish-led offensive at bay, thousands of civilians have mobilized to protect the Tishreen Dam from air strikes which threaten the dam. The developments in Tishreen and Kobane have become the focal point of resistance against foreign occupation and environmental destruction, with more than 400,000 people deprived of water and electricity supply and 41 civilians killed and 258 injured in Turkish air strikes.

According to the U.N., in the past two months at least 625,000 people have been displaced due to the Turkish interference, exacerbating the already dire humanitarian crisis. All in all, some 14 million Syrians have been relocated by the fourteen-year-conflict. Many have been displaced multiple times as sectarian violence and war crimes have followed the constantly evolving control of territory.

Ronnie Hamada, a Syrian academic who grew up between Afrin and Aleppo, will open the pages of his diary for Turning Point, recounting the firsthand experience of a young exile trying to return to his occupied homeland. An intimate and personal journey that resonates with the lives of too many Syrians. For millions of people like Hamada, safe return to home is among the primary steps in building a post-Assad Syria.

The “transitional” HTS government – with Ahmed al-Sharaa, best known as Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, as leader – has made promises of founding an inclusive government that respects and recognizes the various religious and cultural minorities that populate Syria. Despite concerns over HTSs extremist bearings, both Arab and Western states have started to engage with the new authorities: Bounties have been lifted from terrorist leaders, hands have been shaken, and development aid promised in return of vague assurances of “moderation” from the al-Qaeda splinter group. On February 13, the Presidency of France will hold a conference to support Syria’s “transition” with only Asaad Hassan al-Shaibani, a Hayat Tahrir al-Sham representative, representing Syrians. There is a high risk of turning Syria into “a second Afghanistan:” an Islamic regime that can be controlled from outside through military threat and conditional financial support for recovery.

For many Syrians, the establishment of a Sunni-Islamic emirate over the multicultural country poses a mortal danger. The eight years of HTS rule in Idlib have been characterized by human rights violations and strict social control, including imposing sharia code on women and arbitrary imprisonment of any opponents. In newly captured territories, summary violence and arbitrary executions of minorities, particularly Alawites, by gunmen affiliated with the HTS have been reported.

The DAANES administration has already called the HTS-orchestrated “Victory Congress” – which installed al-Jolani as president – as illegal and unrepresentative of Syrian peoples. Among its core demands were the inclusion of all minorities, political entities, and women in the post-Assad reconstruction process. A veteran member of Kongra Star women’s movement writes for Turning Point about the gains of Syrian women during the conflict, with particular focus on the movement’s stronghold in northeastern Syria. Over the years, women constituted themselves as an autonomous political, social, and military force which played a leading role in defeating ISIS and constructing democratic autonomy in the northeastern side of the Euphrates. They vow not taking a step back from defending their gains.

Despite the seemingly polarized nature of Syrian landscape, multilateral negotiations and alliance-building processes are taking place across the country, transgressing the hard frontiers and front lines that defined the political geography only a few months ago. Every week, thousands of people cross the country for medical and other services scarcely available in the provinces. Thousands have returned to their homes, while thousands of others have gone to Damascus, Aleppo and other population centers to find their disappeared relatives in Assad’s dungeons. Merchants adapt their trade routes to the new, post-regime circumstances.

As war ravaged much of Middle East and intensified over 2024, the developments in Syria will play a crucial role in shaping the region over the starting year. The Arab Spring in 2011 being a distant memory in many of the countries engulfed by the protest wave, in Syria, the long road to freedom appears now significantly shorter than a few months ago.